Energy Price Projections

What Affects the Price Cap?

Forecasting the price cap involves analysing a wide range of factors that influence energy costs for suppliers. These include:

• Wholesale energy prices – especially natural gas, which remains a major driver of overall costs
• Supply and demand trends – including seasonal usage patterns like higher winter demand
• Geopolitical events – such as international conflicts or disruptions to energy supply chains
• Regulatory and policy changes – government support schemes, levies, or adjustments in the cap methodology
• Operational costs – including inflation, infrastructure investments, and network charges

These factors can change quickly and often unpredictably, making regular updates essential for accurate forecasting.

Who Produces Forecasts?

Independent analysts like Cornwall Insight are widely recognised for their detailed energy price cap forecasts. They monitor wholesale energy pricing trends, geopolitical developments, demand patterns, and cost pressures to generate projections such as the 7% drop in July 2025, with modest further decreases probable in October and January.

In addition to these independent services, major UK energy suppliers provide their own publicly available price cap forecasts to help customers make informed choices:

• British Gas publishes a quarterly Price Cap Predictions page
• EDF Energy offers a weekly energy price forecasting
• E.ON Next also publishes forecasts

These supplier forecasts are particularly helpful because they update more frequently than the Ofgem quarterly reviews and may reflect short-term shifts in wholesale markets or supplier costs. Reliable comparison tools, like those offered by ismybillfair, often draw on these alongside independent analysts to give you a well-rounded view of expected price cap movements.

Why Seasonal Demand Matters

In the UK, energy usage isn’t constant throughout the year. Winter months see much higher demand, mainly due to heating. This seasonal variation means energy costs—and the price cap—can rise significantly during colder periods. Forecasts take this into account to provide a more realistic view of what households can expect to pay.

How ismybillfair Uses Forecasts

At ismybillfair, we use the latest data and trusted sources to help assess how the price cap might affect the deals we offer. Our team considers:

• Forecasts from independent analysts
• Data from our partner suppliers
• Publications from Ofgem and other regulatory bodies

This helps us provide fair, transparent comparisons—so you can make better-informed decisions about your energy tariff.